Analysis of yesterday's hand

Tuesday, May 3, 2011



As you know, yesterday I asked what you would do in the above hand and why!

There were a lot of answers, most of them were fold, a lot were "instant fold", but there were also some that believed it was a call, or "instant call" even, which is why I think this deserves a careful analysis.
I will use ICM for the calculations, which has some flaws but I don't want the calculations to be too complicated cause not everyone plays sngs.

% Equity Fold: 43.73%
% Equity Call and Win: 48.91%
% Equity Call and Lose: 0%

Therefore to calculate the point where this gets to be a good call we have %EF= x(%ECW) + %(100-x)%ECL

43.73% = 48.91%x
x=89.4%

Do I win +- 90% of the times there?
If he has a 5 in his hand, I just win a maximum of 82.5%, he doesn't even need a straight draw!
To sum up, unless he never has a draw or a pair, the correct play is to fold.
(Even if he had 22, it's borderline and it gets worse as the pairs go up)

So  when I played the hand I chose to fold, but I thought "if the 8 was  of hearts, I would call". WRONG, even with a flush draw on my side I would still have to fold. Impressive, isn't it?

Ah... If you think the mini-raise pre-flop was wrong... Come play some hyper-turbos of the highest ones! You will catch many (all?) of the regulars commit "these mistakes" :P

I hope you liked the question and the analysis!

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