Analysis KK

Monday, June 27th, 2011

As promised, I'll do an analysis of yesterday's hand.

I want to thank everyone who left a comment.
I didn't know that any person could look for a specific hand in Pokerstars. From now on, I'll start cutting out of the image the ID of the hand so that you can't know what I did.

For those of you who didn't see yet, I chose to fold, cause I thought that IFreezer should be on a relatively tight range, since he was attacking the short and I would expect pokinho18 to call relatively wide, since he was the short. I would have called with AA.

Now the analysis..., I put the situation in sit-n-go wizard and the first thing that I need to estimate is "what is the calling range of pokinho18?". The equilibrium suggests 18.9%, but with 3BB behind and being the short on the bubble I'll give him 30%. I will also assume that he only calls with AA, in case I call first.
Again, this is an estimation based on my experience, which is why it could be wrong, but I have to assume something here in order to be able to move on with the calculations.

Giving 30% and 0.5% to pokinho18, what is the range that IFreezer needs to have to make KK be ev+?

Graphic of the EV according to IFreezer's range

It's always negative!

I also tried changing the BB and have him calling only with those 18.9% and nothing much changes in the graphic. Even when changing the range with which the BB would call if I called, unless I put him on an unreal range, it also doesn't change much.

Conlusion, sometimes it's necessary to give up KK with 10 big blinds!

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