Monday, May 30th, 2011

I left a day go by since my last post, so that all the readers would have time to think about the question that I asked.

Here's the problem in question for reference:

I left a day go by since my last post, so that all the readers would have time to think about the question that I asked.

Here's the problem in question for reference:

I want to thank everyone who left a comment with their opinion, first I will analyse the situation and in the end of the post I will put the result.

In the analysis of Poker situations, there is a part that can be calculated in detail and a part that can only be estimated. The conclusions are reached after both of those steps.

We will begin with the one that can be calculated precisely:

I will use ICM for the calculations, that has some leaks, but I don't want to complicate things too much, since not everyone playes sngs.

% Equity Fold: 16.91% (assuming that the player gets all of the pot)

% Equity Call and Win: 46.32%

% Equity Call and Lose: 0%

Therefore to calculate the point where it becomes good to call we have %EF= x(%ECW) + %(100-x) %ECL

16.91% = 46.32%x

x=36.51%

I need my KK to win the hand close to 36.51% of the times to be profitable.

Now the difficult part... To attribute ranges.

error40: I don't know this player, but based on my experience, the range of this player should be between 10% and 30% of the hands, let's say 20% to take the average.

Die_Broke999: This is a regular player, that after thousands and thousands of hands has showed a lot of respect to my mini-raises from the first two positions. I will give him QQ, AK, AKs.

mookster83: I don't know this player either. A non-regular would definately not fold AK, so his range should be at least as big as die_broke999's. Would he fold TT? I honestly don't know, but I will put him on JJ+, AK, AKs.

Putting the ranges at pokerstove, it gives us 34.66% for KK, or to put it in another way, a FOLD. The problem here is that no matter how many more chips I win, I can never get more than 1rst prize, therefore the risk does not make it up for the reward.

You can see what happened here: http://weaktight.com/3610867

I hope you like the analysis, it was a mixture of mathematical calculation, experience and simulation.

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